hatred-if not the main one-the United States would make a major effort to achieve peace between the two peoples.

That was what cold logic indicated. But this is not what happened. What happened was the very opposite.

American policy was not led by cold logic. Instead of draining one swamp, it created a second. Instead of pushing the Israelis and Palestinians towards peace, it invaded Iraq. Not only did the hatred against America not die down, it flared up even higher. I hoped that this danger would override even the oil interests and the desire to station an American garrison in the center of the Middle East.

Thus I committed the very mistake that I have warned others against many times: to assume that what is logical will actually happen. A rational person should not ignore the irrational in politics. In other words, it is irrational to exclude the irrational.

George W. Bush is an irrational person, perhaps the very personification of irrationality. Instead of drawing the logical conclusion from what had happened and acting accordingly, he set off in the opposite direction. Since then he has just insisted on "staying the course."

Enter James Baker.

Since I am already in a confessional mood, I have to admit that I like James Baker.

I know that this will shock some of my good friends. "Baker?!" they will cry out, "The consigliere of the Bush family? The man who helped George W. steal the 2000 elections? The rightist?"

Yes, yes, the very same Baker. I like him for his cold logic, his forthright and blunt style, his habit of saying what he thinks without embellishment, his courage. I prefer this style to the sanctimonious hypocrisy of other leaders, who try to hide their real intentions. I would be happy any time to swap Olmert for Baker, and throw in Amir Peretz for free.

But that is a matter of taste. More important is the fact that in all the last 40 years, James Baker was the only leader in America who had the guts to stand up and act against Israel's malignant disease: the settlements. When he was the Secretary of State, he simply informed the Israeli government that he would deduct the sums expended on the settlements from the money Israel was getting from the United States. Threatened and made good on his threat.

Baker thus confronted the "pro-Israeli" lobbies in the United States, both the Jewish and the Christian. Such courage is rare in the United States, as it is rare in Israel.

This week the Iraq Study Group, led by Baker, published its report.

It confirms all the bleak forecasts voiced by many throughout the

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