trying to win time, at least until after the American elections. Perhaps Bush will not be re-elected, perhaps he will have other things to worry about by then. In the meantime, Sharon will do the inescapable minimum, postpone everything that can be postponed, cheat as much as he can, change what can be changed. His principal assistant, Dov Weissglass, is a grand master of this kind of thing.
Sharon's final objective has not changed, and in Aqaba he has said nothing to contradict it. If the Arabs cannot be removed from the country, they must be confined to isolated enclaves, which will be connected artificially by strips of land to create "contiguity." He is ready to call this a "Palestinian state." It will consist of 42 percent of the occupied territories, which themselves constitute 22 percent of Palestine before 1948. The main settlement blocs will remain as they are and eventually be annexed to Israel. No mention of Jerusalem or the refugees.
As we have said many times: don't listen to what Sharon says, look at what he is doing with his hands. Will he freeze the settlements, as demanded by the Roadmap? Will he really stop building in Ma'aleh Adumim, where hundreds of new houses are now planned? Will he stop building the Separation Wall, whose purpose is to cut off large chunks of the West Bank? Will he immediately remove the 60 settlement outposts that have been built since he came to power? Will the IDF get out of Area A and cease the closures and blockades of Palestinian towns and villages?
Anything else would be a sham.
The good and the bad. On the Palestinian side, something interesting has happened. Without anyone planning it, a game of "good cop, bad cop" has developed.
The Americans and Israelis have swallowed the fairy tale of the "bad Arafat," that was invented by Ehud Barak in order to cover up his monumental failure. So as not to have to talk with the evil Arafat, they have proclaimed that Abu Mazen is the incarnation of everything good and beautiful.
The result: in order to strengthen his standing vis-a-vis Arafat, they are obliged to give Abu Mazen things they refused to give Arafat. The Palestinian public gives qualified support to Abu Mazen and waits to see what he can get from Bush and Sharon. Abu-Mazen cannot move without Arafat, but the results do not bind Arafat, who can always assert that he was not a partner to the deal. An ideal situation for him.
From the Israeli point of view, this is idiotic. If we are negotiating and ready to pay the price, wouldn't it be better to do it with the person who can deliver the goods?