Probably, nothing dramatic will happen. The United States will not collapse suddenly, like the Soviet Union, a giant with feet of clay. It will not go down in military defeat, like Nazi Germany, whose megalomaniac military ambitions were based on a quite inadequate economic base. But the relative power of the United States is in an inevitable process of gradual descent.
The events in Iraq are a small example. America did not enter this adventure only to protect Israel, as the two professors Walt and Mearsheimer assert in their new book. Nor because it wanted to rid poor Iraq of a bloodthirsty tyrant. As we wrote here at the time, it invaded Iraq in order to take hold of the essential oil reserves of the Middle East and station a permanent American garrison in their center. Now it is sinking, as expected, in a quagmire. But a country like the United States, which was able to absorb a shameful debacle in Vietnam, will also absorb the coming fiasco in Iraq. The military might of the United States, unequalled in the world, is based on its unprecedented economic power.
But many small defeats add up to a big one. The war has hurt American prestige, self-confidence, and moral standing (Guantanamo, Abu Ghraib). There was a time when the United States inspired admiration throughout the world. Nowadays, opinion polls show that in almost all the important countries the majority hates the United States. The colossal American national debt also does not bode well.
Is it really good to be tied to the fate of the United States for life and death? Apart from moral considerations, is it wise to put all our eggsall of them-in one basket?
A cynic might say: why not? America still dominates the world. It will continue to do so for quite a while. If and when it loses control, we shall say goodbye and look for new allies. That is what we did with the British. After World War I we helped them to get the Mandate over Palestine, and in return they helped us to establish the Hebrew community here. In the end, they went away and we stayed. After that, we helped France, and in return they gave us the nuclear reactor in Dimona. In the end they went away, and the reactor remained.
This is called "Realpolitik," the politics of reality. We shall get from the Americans what we can and then, in a generation or two, we shall see. Perhaps the United States will lose many of its assets. Perhaps it will stop supporting Israel when a new reality brings about a change in its interests.
I do not believe that our present policy is wise. Our so-called "realistic" policy sees the reality of today, but not the reality of tomorrow. And after all, we did not found a state for some limited time, but for generations to come. We must think about the reality of tomorrow.
Undoubtedly, the world of tomorrow is not going to be uni-polar,