conspired with the Americans to carry out a military coup in the Gaza Strip. Dahlan, the darling of the Americans (and the Israelis) believed, according to them, that if he were provided with arms and money he could take over Gaza. That pushed Hamas to the decision to act first and carry out an armed takeover themselves. Since the majority of the public supported Hamas and detested Dahlan, who was accused of collaborating with the occupation, Hamas easily won. Dahlan has now been sent into exile by Abbas.
Hamas's center of gravity is in the Gaza Strip. That is the problem of Khaled Mashal, the Hamas leader who resides in Damascus. Unlike his two deputies, he has no roots in Gaza. That's why he needs money to reinforce his standing there. He gets it from Iran.
(I would have liked to give some impressions here of the Hamas point of view, but it is quite impossible to enter the Gaza Strip, while our Hamas interlocutors in East Jerusalem have all been sent to prison.)
How will the Palestinians get out of this bind? How can they reestablish a national leadership that will be accepted by all parts of the people in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, able to lead the national struggle and make peace with Israel, when peace becomes possible?
Barghouti's followers believe that at the right time, when Israel comes to the conclusion that it needs peace, he will be released from prison and play a central role in the reconciliation-much as Mandela was released from prison in South Africa when the white government came to the conclusion that the apartheid regime could not be sustained anymore. I have no doubt that in order to bring such a situation about, the Israeli peace forces must start a big public campaign for Barghouti's release.
What will happen in the meantime?
There is hardly anyone on the Palestinian side who believes that Ehud Olmert will conclude a peace agreement and implement it. Hardly anyone believes that anything will come out of the "international meeting" that is supposed to take place in November. The Palestinians believe that it is a bone thrown by President Bush to Condoleezza Rice, whose standing has been dropping dramatically.
And if that has no results?
"There is no vacuum," one of the Fatah leaders told me, "If the efforts of President Abbas do not bear fruit, there will be another explosion, like the intifada after the failure of Camp David."
How is that possible, after the Fatah activists have turned over their arms and foresworn violence? "A new generation will arise," my interlocutor said. "As has happened before, one age-group gets tired and its place is taken by the next one. If the occupation does not come to an